加州购屋者每月房贷还款额最近创下平均4332元的历史新高，主因房贷利率飆升及房价高昂；这也造成当地房屋交易活动几近冻结，交易量接近触底。
根据加州房地产经纪人协会（California Association of Realtors）公布的33年回顾报告和今年6月的独栋屋销售报告，加州6月的房屋交易速度是自1990年代以来排名第20慢，或者可以说是位列最慢的5%之中。
报告指出，加州目前的房屋交易在过去12个月内不但下降了20%，也比过去33年来的每年平均交易量少了34%。回顾历史，加州房市比现在更低迷的时期，只有1990年代初期几个月、2007年到2008年金融危机和新冠疫情早期。
简单而言，造成这个现象的主要原因是：加州的房价贵得离谱。
数据显示，尽管销售疲软，加州6月的中位数房价为83万8260元，在房地产经纪人协会的纪录中排名第六高。事实上，加州房价在过去六个月内上涨了8%，但在过去12个月内下跌了2%，这是因为房市在2022年底时曾一度崩盘。
加州购屋者每月房贷还款额之所以创下新高，进而影响买气，症结在于房贷利率飆升。根据房地美（Freddie Mac）的数据，6月的30年贷款平均利率为6.71%，加州房屋买家若付20%的头期款，平均每月须还款4332元，是自1990年来最高。
房地产经纪人协会表示，加州6月待售屋存量仅能维持2.2个月。数据显示，加州待售屋存量过去一年减少了8%，在整个疫情期间减少了39%，也比过去33年平均5.7个月少了62%。
橙县纪事报报导，洛县与橙县房屋销售量，在12个月内暴跌46%，创下有纪录以来最低的12月。根据CoreLogic数据，这两县房屋销售额总计5772套，比2021年12月开始的12个月减少4833套。
这可说是自1988年以来，销售最慢的12月，与任何一个月相比，房屋销售额第四低。过去12个月的销售额降幅，在35年以来排名第八，也比1988年以来的12月平均销售额低50%。
造成此情况主要原因是经济不稳定，尤其是通膨率飆升和房贷价格上涨，这些因素打击房地产市场。飆升的贷款利率，也使购买力在一年内下降35%。
过去一年中，南加州六县销售额下降47%，至1万2751套，销售价格中间值仅上涨0.7%，至68万6000元。
以洛县来说，过去12个月完成3984套房屋销售，一个月内下降3%，一年内下降48%。橙县过去12个月售出1788套房，一个月内下降2%，一年内下降40%。
在房价上，洛县房屋中位数77万5000元，一个月内下降1.1%，一年内下降3%。这也比2022年4月创下的86万5000元历史新高低了10%。
橙县93万3500元的房屋中位数，一个月内下降2.8%，一年内下降1%。比2022年5月创下105万5000元的高峰值低11%。
更昂贵的贷款利率显然是罪魁祸首。以12月来说，30年贷款平均利率为6.4%，在此之前为3.1%。
根据纪录显示，假设支付20%首期，以洛县房屋中位数77万5000元来说，购屋者房贷增长41%，每月约3862元。一年前房屋中位数为79万9800元，每月支付2733元。
橙县房屋中位数93万3500元，以支付20%头期款来说，购屋者贷款高出45%，达4652元，一年前中位数为93万8200元，购屋者每月支付3204元房贷。
在销售方面，洛县2796笔交易，一个月内下降3%，一年内下降48%。橙县1022交易量，一个月内下降1%，一年内下降47%。
2022年12月洛县房屋中位数83万元，同比下降4%。橙县100万元房屋中位数，一个月下降3%，一年内下降6%。
康斗房屋销售也有所下降。洛县售出894套，一个月内下降2%，一年内下降51%。橙县售出496套，一个月内增长6%，但一年内下降39%。
洛县康斗的中位数61万9500元，一个月内下降3%，一年内下降5%。橙县中位数为72万1000元，一个月内上涨5%，一年内上涨8%。
新屋的销售也差不多。洛县建筑商售出225套，一个月内下降13%，一年内下降36%。橙县售出263套新屋，一个月内下降两成，但一年内上升19% 。
价格方面，洛县新屋中位数92万4250元，一个月内上涨11%，一年内上涨14%。橙县中位数100万元，一个月内下降5%，一年内下降16%。
2023 CALIFORNIA HOUSING FORECAST
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022p | 2023f | |
| SFH Resales(000s) | 417.7 | 424.9 | 402.6 | 398 | 411.9 | 444.5 | 359.2 | 333.4 |
| % Change | 2.0% | 1.7% | -5.2% | -1.2% | 3.5% | 7.9% | -19.2% | -7.2% |
| Median Price($000s) | $502.3 | $537.9 | $569.5 | $592.4 | $659.4 | $786.7 | $831.5 | $758.6 |
| % Change | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 11.3% | 19.3% | 5.7% | -8.8% |
| HousingAffordabilityIndex* | 31% | 29% | 28% | 31% | 32% | 26% | 19% | 18% |
| 30-Yr FRM | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% |
p = projected
f = forecast
* = % of households who can afford median-priced home
联邦房屋抵押贷款公司「房地美」（Freddie Mac）15日公布的调查结果发现，全美30年期房贷利率平均已达6.02%之际，今年7月，南加房屋销售量就比去年同期减少了35%。
30年期房贷利率已高于上周的5.89%，也是2008年11月的6.04%后再度攀上6.00%的高位。同时，值得购屋者留心的是，房地美的利率估算是假设贷款人信用优良且头期能付20%，因此经济条件差的人利率可能更高。
受到新冠疫情影响，一年前的30年期房贷利率平均只有2.86%，但是随着通货膨胀加剧、联准会（FED）持续升息，利率因此再度攀上高峰。同时之间，再融资的15年期贷款利率也由5.16%升至5.21%，一年之前仅2.12%。未来如果情势不变，利率还有可能再度攀高，房仲业者预估，高利率将会冲击房市需求，导致房价在2023年下跌。
迹象之一是，今年7月，南加房屋销售量就比去年同期减少了35%，中位价只上升了8.8%，但回顾今年4月时，中位价可是年增17%。利率大增，购屋者要负担的钱就更多，与去年同期相比，74万元的房子、头期款20%，利率增至6.02%，代表月付额增加1105元。74万元正是南加7月时的中位价，如果房价100万，月付额增加1494元。
房价最大的变量还是来自联邦利率是升还降，但是其他因素也不可忽略，除了通膨之外，还有就业市场的缺人是否趋缓。但是专家认为，劳动市场的需求仍然强劲，加上经济衰退的风险不高，通膨还可能维持高位，因此房贷利率短期内恐怕难以降低。
Home price growth in the U.S. surged in April at a pace not seen in more than 30 years.
Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday that its S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index posted a 14.6% annual gain in April, up from 13.3% in March — marking the 11th straight month of accelerating prices. The 20-City Composite posted a 14.9% annual gain, up from 13.4% a month earlier. The results far outpaced analysts’ expectations of a 14.7% annual gain, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.
“April’s performance was truly extraordinary. The 14.6% gain in the National Composite is literally the highest reading in more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a press statement. “Housing prices in all 20 cities rose; price gains in all 20 cities accelerated; price gains in all 20 cities were in the top quartile of historical performance.”This content is not available due to your privacy preferences.Update your settings here to see it.
Phoenix, Dan Diego, and Seattle continued to lead the 20-City composite. Phoenix led for the 23rd month in a row posting a 22.3% annual increase, followed by San Diego with a 21.6% increase and Seattle with a 20.2% increase.
Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren told Yahoo Finance last week that he was “concerned about rising home prices, but noted that the hot real estate market is “not at a point where we should be panicked.”
The results were expected and follow similar data pointing to skyrocketing home prices well into the busy spring season. Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that the median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $350,300, up 23.6% from May 2020 ($283,500), as every region registered price increases — a record high and marking 111 straight months of year-over-year gains since March 2012.
“While the acceleration may be met with concerns, mortgage interest rates remain 50% lower than they were in 2005, when home price growth last peaked, keeping the ratio of mortgage payments to monthly households income lower today,” CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp said in a press statement. “It’s probably that continued massive demand will keep pressure on prices, which are likely to remain at double-digit growth rate throughout the remainder of 2021.”
“Higher costs for building materials and labor have been putting upwards pressure on home prices. Strong demand for homes coupled with tight inventories should support further home prices gains,” said Bank of America in a recent research note. BofA expected a 14% annual increased in the index.
A new report from the NAR found that the housing market needs to build at least 5.5 million new units, both single-family and multi-family homes, just to keep up with demand and keep home ownership affordable over the next decade.
Total housing inventory at the end of May amounted to 1.23 million units, up 7.0% from April’s inventory and down 20.6% from one year ago, according to the NAR. Unsold inventory sits at a 2.5-month supply at the present sales pace, marginally up from April’s 2.4-month supply but down from 4.6 months in May 2020.
The lack of homes for sales is also slowing home buying activity. Existing home sales slid for the fourth straight month in May, according to the NAR.
“Home sales fell moderately in May and are now approaching pre-pandemic activity,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, in a press statement. “Lack of inventory continues to be the overwhelming factor holding back home sales, but falling affordability is simply squeezing some first-time buyers out of the market.”
| May-21 | Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family Homes | Sales | |||||||
| State/Region/County | May-21 | Apr-21 | May-20 | Price MTM% Chg | Price YTY% Chg | Sales MTM% Chg | Sales YTY% Chg | ||
| CA SFH (SAAR) | $818,260 | $814,010 | r | $588,070 | 0.5% | 39.1% | -2.7% | 86.7% | |
| CA Condo/Townhomes | $592,000 | $570,000 | $464,900 | 3.9% | 27.3% | -8.8% | 150.9% | ||
| Los Angeles Metropolitan Area | $725,000 | $725,000 | $535,000 | 0.0% | 35.5% | -5.2% | 81.0% | ||
| Central Coast | $900,000 | $925,620 | $678,500 | -2.8% | 32.6% | -4.7% | 111.8% | ||
| Central Valley | $445,000 | $435,000 | $350,000 | 2.3% | 27.1% | -0.4% | 44.0% | ||
| Far North | $365,000 | $367,250 | $299,000 | -0.6% | 22.1% | 2.1% | 58.6% | ||
| Inland Empire | $510,000 | $500,000 | $395,740 | 2.0% | 28.9% | -4.3% | 58.4% | ||
| S.F. Bay Area | $1,340,000 | $1,328,440 | $965,000 | 0.9% | 38.9% | -5.2% | 104.6% | ||
| Southern California | $752,250 | $750,000 | $565,000 | 0.3% | 33.1% | -4.8% | 80.0% | ||
| S.F. Bay Area | May-21 | Apr-21 | May-20 | Price MTM% Chg | Price YTY% Chg | Sales MTM% Chg | Sales YTY% Chg | ||
| Alameda | $1,312,500 | $1,300,000 | $955,000 | 1.0% | 37.4% | -1.6% | 130.2% | ||
| Contra Costa | $1,015,000 | $990,000 | $690,000 | 2.5% | 47.1% | -6.6% | 95.1% | ||
| Marin | $1,632,500 | $1,610,000 | $1,500,000 | 1.4% | 8.8% | -1.5% | 61.0% | ||
| Napa | $837,500 | $950,000 | $672,500 | -11.8% | 24.5% | -5.7% | 118.9% | ||
| San Francisco | $1,900,000 | $1,800,000 | $1,627,500 | 5.6% | 16.7% | -9.2% | 136.5% | ||
| San Mateo | $2,075,000 | $2,001,000 | $1,650,000 | 3.7% | 25.8% | -1.9% | 94.4% | ||
| Santa Clara | $1,675,000 | $1,650,000 | $1,365,000 | 1.5% | 22.7% | -8.2% | 131.8% | ||
| Solano | $579,000 | $555,000 | $482,000 | 4.3% | 20.1% | -7.5% | 10.3% | ||
| Sonoma | $780,000 | $777,500 | $675,000 | 0.3% | 15.6% | -2.5% | 158.5% | ||
| Southern California | May-21 | Apr-21 | May-20 | Price MTM% Chg | Price YTY% Chg | Sales MTM% Chg | Sales YTY% Chg | ||
| Los Angeles | $725,680 | $718,440 | r | $553,710 | r | 1.0% | 31.1% | -3.1% | 80.7% |
| Orange | $1,100,000 | $1,100,000 | $834,550 | 0.0% | 31.8% | -10.1% | 130.9% | ||
| Riverside | $560,000 | $545,500 | $434,480 | 2.7% | 28.9% | -5.2% | 60.4% | ||
| San Bernardino | $410,000 | $405,000 | $320,000 | 1.2% | 28.1% | -2.5% | 54.8% | ||
| San Diego | $851,000 | $825,120 | $655,000 | 3.1% | 29.9% | -3.2% | 76.1% | ||
| Ventura | $806,000 | $865,000 | $681,250 | -6.8% | 18.3% | -7.8% | 119.5% | ||
| Central Coast | May-21 | Apr-21 | May-20 | Price MTM% Chg | Price YTY% Chg | Sales MTM% Chg | Sales YTY% Chg | ||
| Monterey | $887,000 | $840,000 | $650,000 | 5.6% | 36.5% | 0.4% | 153.3% | ||
| San Luis Obispo | $775,000 | $799,950 | $632,500 | -3.1% | 22.5% | -10.4% | 99.3% | ||
| Santa Barbara | $1,299,000 | $1,100,000 | $637,500 | 18.1% | 103.8% | -2.1% | 99.3% | ||
| Santa Cruz | $1,300,000 | $1,265,000 | $850,000 | 2.8% | 52.9% | -4.9% | 110.9% | ||
| Central Valley | May-21 | Apr-21 | May-20 | Price MTM% Chg | Price YTY% Chg | Sales MTM% Chg | Sales YTY% Chg | ||
| Fresno | $361,500 | $355,000 | $295,000 | 1.8% | 22.5% | 3.8% | 40.5% | ||
| Glenn | $384,000 | $302,500 | $323,250 | 26.9% | 18.8% | -54.2% | -8.3% | ||
| Kern | $317,000 | $315,000 | $270,000 | 0.6% | 17.4% | -3.6% | 60.8% | ||
| Kings | $315,000 | $305,000 | $249,950 | 3.3% | 26.0% | -17.4% | 13.6% | ||
| Madera | $360,000 | $378,000 | $297,500 | -4.8% | 21.0% | 5.3% | 34.3% | ||
| Merced | $350,000 | $325,000 | $285,000 | 7.7% | 22.8% | 1.7% | 12.0% | ||
| Placer | $663,450 | $625,000 | $515,000 | 6.2% | 28.8% | -2.3% | 53.1% | ||
| Sacramento | $500,000 | $490,000 | $395,000 | 2.0% | 26.6% | -0.3% | 46.1% | ||
| San Benito | $810,000 | $722,500 | $660,500 | 12.1% | 22.6% | -7.8% | 195.0% | ||
| San Joaquin | $500,000 | $490,000 | $415,000 | 2.0% | 20.5% | 10.0% | 55.7% | ||
| Stanislaus | $440,000 | $419,000 | $350,000 | 5.0% | 25.7% | -5.7% | 37.8% | ||
| Tulare | $324,350 | $309,600 | $255,250 | 4.8% | 27.1% | -1.2% | 17.4% | ||
| Far North | May-21 | Apr-21 | May-20 | Price MTM% Chg | Price YTY% Chg | Sales MTM% Chg | Sales YTY% Chg | ||
| Butte | $449,000 | $438,500 | $362,000 | 2.4% | 24.0% | -10.9% | 63.2% | ||
| Lassen | $247,450 | $253,000 | $195,000 | -2.2% | 26.9% | 4.3% | 41.2% | ||
| Plumas | $423,000 | $400,000 | $269,000 | 5.8% | 57.2% | 31.7% | 260.0% | ||
| Shasta | $360,000 | $350,000 | $297,000 | 2.9% | 21.2% | 10.2% | 53.3% | ||
| Siskiyou | $289,000 | $302,500 | $230,000 | -4.5% | 25.7% | -25.9% | 10.3% | ||
| Tehama | $348,000 | $362,000 | $290,000 | -3.9% | 20.0% | 11.9% | 51.6% | ||
| Other Counties in California | May-21 | Apr-21 | May-20 | Price MTM% Chg | Price YTY% Chg | Sales MTM% Chg | Sales YTY% Chg | ||
| Amador | $427,500 | $415,000 | $321,000 | 3.0% | 33.2% | 2.9% | 80.0% | ||
| Calaveras | $473,800 | $475,000 | $330,000 | -0.3% | 43.6% | 5.1% | 55.2% | ||
| Del Norte | $415,000 | $364,170 | $338,450 | 14.0% | 22.6% | -59.1% | -59.1% | ||
| El Dorado | $688,000 | $654,750 | $535,000 | 5.1% | 28.6% | 4.3% | 79.8% | ||
| Humboldt | $400,000 | $425,000 | $340,750 | -5.9% | 17.4% | 18.3% | 84.3% | ||
| Lake | $360,000 | $324,950 | $300,000 | 10.8% | 20.0% | -10.4% | 72.0% | ||
| Mariposa | $415,000 | $343,200 | $280,000 | 20.9% | 48.2% | 0.0% | 100.0% | ||
| Mendocino | $602,500 | $528,000 | $426,000 | 14.1% | 41.4% | 2.0% | 100.0% | ||
| Mono | $1,140,000 | $974,000 | $520,150 | 17.0% | 119.2% | -25.0% | 400.0% | ||
| Nevada | $563,250 | $555,000 | $410,000 | 1.5% | 37.4% | -11.2% | 42.9% | ||
| Sutter | $410,000 | $410,000 | $342,550 | 0.0% | 19.7% | 37.3% | 102.5% | ||
| Tuolumne | $390,700 | $367,000 | $319,000 | 6.5% | 22.5% | 7.2% | 103.9% | ||
| Yolo | $617,500 | $566,000 | $443,000 | 9.1% | 39.4% | 8.6% | 83.1% | ||
| Yuba | $400,000 | $384,700 | $320,000 | 4.0% | 25.0% | 37.8% | 100.0% |
据《洛杉矶时报》报道，南加州的房价在过去的5月份飙升近25%，再创历史新高，但一些数据表明，经过这轮飙升后，民众对房产的需求可能放缓。
报道引述数据公司 DQNews 周二发布的数据显示，南加州六县地区的销售价格的中位数，自 2020 年 5 月以来上涨了 24.7%，上个月达到创纪录的 66.7 万美元，销售额也比上年同期激增。
- 洛杉矶县，5 月份房价中位数上涨了 25%，达到创纪录的 77.5万美元，而销售额则攀升了 117%。
- 橙县，房价中位数上涨 19.3% 至创纪录的 89.5万美元，而销售额则攀升 113.4%。
- 河滨县，房价中位数上涨了 22.5%，达到创纪录的 50.2万美元，而销售额则攀升了 81.7%。
- 圣贝纳迪诺县，房价中位数上涨 16.8% 至 43.2万美元，而销售额攀升 61%。
- 圣地亚哥县，房价中位数上涨了 22.9%，达到创纪录的 72.5万美元，而销售额则攀升了 81.7%。
- 文图拉县，房价中位数上涨 20.9% 至创纪录的 70.2万美元，而销售额则攀升 128.7%。
Los Angeles County home sales drop 11% after $155,000 price jump from a year ago. Here’s from DQNews/CoreLogic’s report on closed transactions in May from Los Angeles County.
Sales: 7,800 existing and new residences sold — down 7% from April. May has average 6.1% gains since 1988 in a one-month period where transactions rose in 27 of the last 34 years.
Past 12 months? 83,833 Los Angeles County sales — up 21% above the previous 12 months and 9% above the 10-year average but 10-year average and 13% off the pace since 1988.
Prices: The countywide $775,000 median was up $155,000 or 25% — over 12 months. Over 10 years, gains averaged 9.2% annually. The latest 12-month gain ranks No. 13 of 389 periods since 1988. The latest median breaks the record of $750,000 set in March and April.
The median’s $155,000 increase equals $17.69 for each hour over 12 months.
Rates on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.03% in the three months ending in May vs. 3.33% a year earlier. That translates to 4% more buying power for house hunters.
At these rates, a buyer with 20% down would pay $2,625 a month on the $775,000 median sale vs. $2,180 on last year’s $620,000 median. So during the past year, the typical house payment became 20.4% pricier.
Homes sold averaged just eight days on the market in the Inland Empire; 10 days in Los Angeles and Orange counties, Zillow reported.
Orange County: 3,491 sold, up 113% in year. Median? record $895,000 — a 19% increase.
Riverside County: 4,358 sales, up 82% in year. Median? record $502,250 — a 23% increase.
San Bernardino County: 2,960 sold, up 61% in year. Median? $432,000 — a 17% increase.
San Diego County: 4,222 sales, up 82% in year. Median? record $725,000 — a 23% increase.
Ventura County: 1,125 sold, up 129% in year. Median? $701,500 — a 21% increase.