2023年年底，南加州橙县、圣贝纳迪诺县、圣地亚哥县和文图拉县等四县的房价追平或打破了之前的房价纪录。据房地产数据公司CoreLogic，在住房价格上涨的同时，销售量跌至有纪录以来的第六低水平。

南加州6县的房价

据12月21日CoreLogic报告，南加州房屋的中位价（即所有交易的中点价格）同比上涨7%，达到74万美元。上个月的销售额下降了4%，为12,416笔交易，这是自2月份以来的最低纪录，在过去24个月中销售额一直在下降。

加州房地产经纪人协会首席经济学家乔丹·莱文（Jordan Levine）认为：“虽然过去几个月的房屋销售疲软，但待售房的供应紧张阻止了房价下跌。”

四个房价破纪录的县中除了橙县外，销售量都在下降；洛杉矶县房价上涨和销量下降均约为7%，；而河滨县房价和销量均略有增加。

橙县房价的中位数上涨14.6%，达到110万美元的历史新高；销量增长3.2%，达成1,815笔交易。

圣贝纳迪诺县房价的中位数上涨12.9%，达到51.95万美元的历史新高，销售量下降1.7%，达成1,857笔交易。

文图拉县房价的中位数涨了7.7%，达到创纪录的82.85万美元；销售额下降8.7%，达成440笔交易。

圣地亚哥房价的中位数上涨10.9%，达到85万美元，与7月份创下的历史新高持平；销售额下降12.6%，交易量为1,982笔。

洛杉矶县房价的中位数上涨7.1%至84万美元，销售额下降7.0%，为3,823笔交易；价格上涨和销量下降都比较高。

河滨县房价的中位数上涨1.6%至55万美元，销量增长1.9%，为2,499笔交易；价格上涨不多，销量略有增加。

销售量年度最低

据南加州新闻集团的预测，2023年南加州的房屋销售总量不太可能超过17万套（年平均销量为27.1万套），是有记录以来销售最清淡的一年。其中新房的交易量比二手房的情况要好。

销售第二清淡的是2008年，CoreLogic统计成交了202,500笔交易，比今年至少多出32,000笔。那一年美国房地产崩盘，数百万人失去了家园。崩盘的主要原因包括次贷危机、高债务水平以及金融部门缺乏监管。

据Redfin公司的数据，南加州今年活跃挂牌房源平均为42,000套，而过去11年的平均活跃房源接近65,000套。

在2022年的基础上，过去6个月的房屋抵押贷款利率继续上涨，平均为7.2%，这不仅令买家望而却步，对卖家也是如此。大多数业主购屋时的贷款利率为4%或更低，因此那些没有紧急出售理由的业主会继续保留当前的房屋和较低的贷款利率。

全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）首席经济学家劳伦斯·云（Lawrence Yun）预测，2024年的30年固定抵押贷款平均利率将为6.3%，美联储也宣布明年将降息4次，以平息通货膨胀和经济活动的放缓。预计明年的贷款利率下降，有可能会吸引更多买家入场。

Rates on 30-year new purchase loans held firm Wednesday after dropping the previous day to 7.01%—their lowest average in seven months. The 15-year average is also near its cheapest price since May. Many other loan averages were flat or nearly flat Wednesday, though several adjustable-rate averages dropped.

Because rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you’re seeking.

National Averages of Lenders’ Best Rates
Loan Type	New Purchase	Refinance
30-Year Fixed	7.01%	7.62%
FHA 30-Year Fixed	6.85%	6.93%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed	6.44%	6.44%
15-Year Fixed	6.23%	6.50%
5/6 ARM	7.56%	7.68%

National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country’s top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700–760, and no mortgage points.

Today’s Mortgage Rate Averages: New Purchase

After plummeting almost four-tenths of a percentage point last week, 30-year mortgage rates are holding even a bit lower this week. After inching down to 7.01% Tuesday—its lowest mark since May 17—the flagship average held steady Wednesday. Just two months ago, 30-year mortgage rates had climbed to a 23-year peak of 8.45%.

 Compare the Best Mortgage Rates Today (December 2023)

NOTE

Freddie Mac’s Oct. 26 release of weekly mortgage data was historic, indicating that 30-year mortgage rates had climbed to a 7.79% average—the highest level in 23 years. But in the eight weeks since, the Freddie Mac 30-year average has steadily fallen. Today’s newly published average plunged 28 basis points, lowering the average to 6.67%, the lowest mark since June.1

Freddie Mac’s averages differ from those we publish here due to Freddie Mac calculating a weekly average that blends five previous days of rates, which may include loans priced with discount points. In contrast, Investopedia’s averages indicate daily rate movement and only include zero-point loans.

Rates on 15-year new purchase loans also fell dramatically last week—and with a minimal gain of 1 basis point Wednesday, the 15-year average is now 6.23%, just above its lowest level since May 15. In contrast, October saw 15-year rates surge to a 7.59% peak, the highest average since 2000.

Jumbo 30-year rates held steady for a third day Wednesday after moving lower for the two previous days. The jumbo 30-year average is down to 6.44%. its cheapest reading since July. Though daily historical jumbo rates are not available before 2009, it’s estimated that the 7.52% peak in October was the most expensive average for jumbo 30-year loans in more than 20 years.

Wednesday’s biggest new purchase rate movers were the VA 30-year average, which sank 33 basis points, and the 7/6 ad 10/6 ARM averages, which lost 17 and 15 basis points, respectively.

加州房地产经纪人协会（California Association of Realtors）的最新报告指出，加州2023年11月的房屋成交量较10月减少7.4%，较2022年11月更少了5.8%，年比月比双减；经季节调整后年化预估数为22万3940笔，为16年来新低。

2008年全年销售量为39.5万。然而，相对于交易量少，售价却不一定低。旧金山等房价过高的都会区已自2022年的高点下滑了10%，但地产平台Zillow的房价指数（Home Value Index）却显示，其他区域的价格变化不大，还因为物件稀少而逐渐升高。

协会的统计显示，二手屋的交易量从2023年初已经下跌25.9%，主因是房贷利率高与房价仍贵。不过尽管成交量下滑，但房价可没掉多少，加州单户住宅的中位数成本下降了2.2%，目前为82.2万元，但仍比一年前高出6.2%。

协会2024年度的会长Melanie Barker 在声明中指出，11月的成交量受限于高利率与供应短缺，但加州房市未来的情形可能好转，特别是联准会（Fed）可能考虑降息。她说，市场利率已经降至四个月以来的新低，加上联准会的消息，买家可能更愿意买房。

目前对于未来房市普遍性的预测正逐渐好转中。本周住房抵押贷款利率，已经随着市场对于明年降息的预期，自上周以来大幅下降，当前小额贷款（72万6200元以下）买房利息最新统计发布，固定30年期抵押贷款利率约为6.375%。

不过专家提醒，如果观望的消费者预期利率会大幅下降，就会被「误导」。尽管利率会往下走，但如果消费者预估未来能再出现超低利率如2%至3%的抵押贷款利率，极有可能会失望。另外，虽然100万美元以上的交易看似不错，但由于抵押贷款利率仍高，每个价位的物件买家需求都在减少中。